BBK - Brian Bolek Knows - Ep 139 - Chattim3

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-05-23 11:32:17
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Notes:
Bias - One of the few people I talk to privately, one of the best senses of humor in a person I know. Poor guy has had to read lengthy explanation messages from me when I am pretty sure he was looking for 10 words or less. Not going to give it a grade because there's a 0.00% chance I could be objective. There are many days when the hardest I laugh is because of him.

1:05 - Chattim's origin story. Fantasy football > DFS > player props > into bigger markets. Feb 2020 - leaves day job the day after his bonus hits the bank account (lol), then has the worth run he's ever had, then the pandemic (incredible run).

8:40 - NBA / NBA Playoffs - Think people might be overstating how different it is betting it, but it's obviously different because "the good players are playing more". All his stuff is player based so his approach is just to simply adjust minute projections (all pretty standard). Thinks matchups are overstated too, especially in those series where good coaching exists. Enjoys betting playoffs because there's actually less guesswork. Games are refereed differently, two years ago did make a playoff model based off his base/regular season model, but it isn't different "layered on top of" the regular model.

14:00 - Early Season Modeling: - Decay / Roster Changes - NBA, since it's heavily player ratings driven, just updates rosters, builds a prior and then updates with new data. For sports where that approach isn't as easy, will do roster review and the partially qualitatively, partially quantitatively assign a prior then updates per normal with new data. 15:25 - "How often do you override model output" - about 10-15%, ex - most common is when a team has showed edge very frequently + market doesn't agree + results not good, will pass on those edges (liked his explanation here, actually pretty easy ruleset to follow). "When I pass on something, I try to learn from it." I'm biased, but I found this profound, I pass on small edges all the time, not sure I try to learn anything maybe I should be? Gives another ex of the Chris Paul teams where Foster was reffing.

21:30 - Shipper Q on ZigZag: No strong opinion, but his non-data supported guess was majority of the zigzag effect is possibly effort, followed by subconscious ref biases, followed by coaching. Market pricing this properly. Mentions that this could be dynamic based on factors like certain coaches, etc. 30:00 - they finally get to the Shipper live chat comment on the "Arturo Coefficient" which is the AmericanNumbers 15 point adjustment in Foster reffed Paul games and we all have a good laugh. 31:10 - Elimination Game Unders: Says not specifically elimination games, just totals pricing as a series progresses.

32:45 - This Year's Surprises: DAL D, OKC shot quality especially near the rim. "Celtics Jekyll and Hyde Act." (41:05 - Bolek talks about how Scalabrine didn't get many minutes with Thibs and Chattim does his best Ryen Russillo Sunday pod impersonation and dryly interjects "Really? Surprising" lol.) Surprised by the Suns performance.

49:00 - Superteams: Not a contracts / CBA guy. League wide talent. Just the simple matter that the superteams that succeeded all had one of the best players of all time. (Good convo here although when talking about the future, you do need to talk about the CBA and the second apron kicking in, thanks Danny Leroux & Nate Duncan!)

57:00 - Networking: Chicago Betting Meetups. Got accounts which really helped getting down + getting down better prices. Bet Bash - very fun, sounds like Rick gets after it on night 1. 1:00:45 - LOL, Bolek asks is there anyone you met who once you met you were like they are better in person. "Usually, it's the opposite." Incredible. 1:03:25 - LOOL, "5'5"-5'10" is basically the same height, I'm 6 foot." /smiles at camera. Dying.

1:07:30 - Chicago: Moved from Ohio (Cincy, THE Ohio State) to Chicago, moved here bigger city, friends. Least favorite - traffic. Favorite things - bars, things to do, food. Misconceptions - Crime, "all cities have areas you just don't go to". 1:16:20 - Chicago Pizza. "Deep Dish is like an open faced calzone." Misconception - Gioradano's isn't what the local like despite the outside CHI opinion it's the best. Recommends "Piece Brewery Pizzeria" (I think had to look it up), New Haven style. Pizza Lobo. 1:20:30 - Meat discussion - Dry vs dipped bun, dipped. Al's Beef? Mr. Beef. Doesn't like Portillo? (I know like none of these names, might be getting them wrong.) Ricobene's. 1:22:50 - "I don't think GRP is swinging by for a beer." "Yeah, he doesn't have my address ... and he won't." Crying. Malort - nope. Au Cheval burger - was good. The Region burger good, sauce ehh. 1:34:30 - Delilah's dive bar, whiskey selection + Blue Line Lunge & Grill for vibes and scenery, not touristy.

1:28:55 - Doesn't consume much sports betting content. Circles Off guest dependent. Spanky's pod good. Bet The Process guest dependent. Fan of BBK! 1:36:15 - BOS v DEN makes BOS around -140 but didn't run it (PC was upstairs). "Do you need a a certain edge to bet?" Yes, 1.5% xROI now, this has gone down as time has gone as the process has gotten better. 1:38:00 - Hardest sport to model (of the ones he does) - college sports, did try building a golf model that didn't end up winning.

1:39:20 - User Qs: Good Arrest Story: Original 4 Loko story! Says he doesn't have any friends who have been arrested (guess we aren't friends). 1:41:10 - "Who would you write a diss track about?" - doesn't answer doesn't want to be too negative (boo). Finally answers Pisky. 1:47"30 - "What % of your action is PPH, rec book, MM?" Majority is MM for sure, BetWar, SundayBets, etc. 65-75% MM. 1:49:05 - Seth Burn questions. "Hate meatloaf" (Bolek didn't even get the question out lol). 1:50:00 - Python almost always, some R for certain packages. 1:56:00 - Some somewhat pro-Huberman takes that I am just going to ignore I ever heard. 2:02:25 - Probability Tempe threw games? 90-95% chance something happened, 15% some ramifications. 2:04:00 - My question for some lesser known accounts to follow. He gives two good answers - Christopher Dierkes @Flupnolide (didn't follow) and ThaChoo. 2:04:50 - "Does having the best player matter more in Game 7s?" Was a good question, thinks so but might need deeper thought.