BBK - Brian Bolek Knows - Seth Burn (The Green Knight Returns)

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-04-29 19:38:22
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Notes:
Haven't been reviewing these BBK's with Seth since they aren't really sports betting focused, but more general sport podcasts. However, I've found Seth's draft stuff pretty good in the past and I love the NFL draft so we roll. Bias - Obviously super friendly with Seth, one of the few people I talk to privately.

To recap Seth's draft takes -
- he likes Maye's upside more than Daniels who is more ready now, 4 1st round grades on QBs, but thinks o4.5 cashes
- total non-believer in JJ McCarthy
- MHJ #1 WR S tier by himself, #1 player
- Large gap between Odunze and WR4
- Alt best OT, but the gap isn't very large between other options being mocked in that area
- Doesn't like Latu's T-Rex arms, has Turner clearly ahead
- Sounds lower on Fuaga, JPJ (def lower on JPJ based on his Twitter interactions) because of Oregon's super low time to throw / scheme


3:45 - pretty interesting talk about the value of the guard position potentially changing in recent years.

15:15 - Bolek leg pressing 330.

17:45 - NFL Draft talk. Redrafting recent QBs (assuming pre draft knowledge only) - TLaw, Caleb, Burrow sniffing 2. (It's funny, my initial reaction was that this didn't sound right, but it probably is.) 27:00 - Not a JJ McCarthy believer. 29:15 - Will Levis "but he also pretty well last year so what do I know?". Will Levis had a good opener and he was pretty bad after that, finished with a QBR of 33.2. The best Levis argument IMO is that his OL (especially LT) stunk, but the same issues Seth and I had as a prospect showed up in the NFL including 14 turnover worthy plays per PFF in like less than 300 dropbacks.

30:45 - Brings up that there's no real locks after 1. Sort of obvious, but he's right this year is extremly tough to mock because there's a wide range of outcomes this year, wider than maybe the last 7 or 8 years IMO. Like Seth says, even the WR order, which seemed a lock, doesn't seem to be as they recorded and I agree.

37:30 - Strongest betting stances - fading JJ McCarthy hard, fading Troy Fautanu although not as much since smaller market, Penix to go top 32, Odunze Top 8.

41:00 - Listener questions start. Biggest Pysop this year? Laiatu Latu's arm length (good answer!). 54:45 - "Which team has the hardest 1st round decision?" WAS, MIN. I actually agree with both answers, although the MIN reasoning isn't exactly how I would explain it. Seth actually states "maybe MIN trades down and pick up Penix at 20". I think the hardest part of taking this scenario seriously was the earlier trade for 23 (which hasn't been mentioned I don't think) and if your plan was to wait at 11 or trade down, you shouldn't have traded for 23 IMO.

1:02:10 - 4 1st round draft grades - Caleb, Maye, Williams, Penix, expects the over 4.5 to cash. 1:05:40 - "No, I do not believe the Vikings are the best landing spot for a QB." Wow! I didn't expect him to say this! Seth says his optimal landing spot is 21 to MIA! Wow, glad I asked this one, answer makes sense to me! (I don't have MIA as "QB needy", but agree with Seth they should be.) This was a great answer (very possible I am overrating the situation). 1:13:30 - Interesting, instead of the time to throw stats being a large negative for Nix, Seth thinks its more of an issue with the OL prospects (see his Tej interactions on X).

1:20:00 - Funniest part of the pod for me - "I can't really price the market for him going OT1."

1:30:00 - Seth gives his Sunday vibes picks (which is very hard, a lot of intel starts dropping in the next 1-2 days not holding Seth to any of this).
- Caleb, Daniels, Maye, MHJ, not sure he made a pick here? for LAC, Giants WR, TEN Alt/OT, ATL Turner, sounds like a pass catcher, NYJ "sad trombone", MIN "will they pick here?" but QB, DEN "could be an early spot for Penix", LV just laughter.