Bet the Process - BTP Vegas Trip

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-09-14 07:12:14
Rating: 6.50

Notes:
The 8-9 minutes between ~22:00 and 31 is where the entire rating for this pod comes from.

4:10 - Rufus is 7 Stars at Caesars which is the highest tier. (I did see a tweet about this on Twitter which is why I thought I would timestamp it. I understand the rationale behind it, other sharps think otherwise. I don't feel strongly either way about the ROI on extending 7 stars to Rufus so not going to die on any hill here, but interesting theorycrafting point on what the ROI for extending a perk like that to someone like Rufus really is.)

Some hypothetical par 3 golf course talk. "I'd take Scheffler." Not wrong, but pretty down the middle of the fairway. Golf bettors might enjoy the hypotheticals here, not really in my wheelhouse. Some match play / format hypotheticals for the Tour Championship I believe. Rufus 230-250 off the tee when he has it humming, playing to an 8.7.

16:30 - Vegas Trip talk: Rufus sings some Afrojack. Casa Playa dinner. Omnia for Lost Frequencies.

19:50 - Football Talk: "Did you watch football last week?" "I did not." "Great answer." "We didn't have any FCS teams beat any FBS teams which early in the season you would expect high variance, but them all winning is in itself a high variance event."

22:00 - Interesting point from Rufus here - didn't make money on NCAAF last year and over last two years net is only +$51k. (Appreciate the transparency). 22:45 - Massey-Peabody they don't use the FCS stuff, they don't rate FCS team "which is absolutely a weakness". Rufus has an opinion that some of these public models are overreacting to performances vs FCS teams. Gives a very good example of TeamRankings moving a 2nd week game 11 points based on the teams performances the prior week against FCS schools. ESPN FPI moved 10 points on Auburn / Cal. (Best part of the podcast by far - this is the part that college football bettors should look at). 27:25 - Jeff asks the salient point "are you accounting for injuries?" which is salient because very famously Massey-Peabody didn't handle injuries all too well (see the Giants WR injuries many years back now).

27:55 - "If you look at a rating system like ESPN's FPI that isn't accounting for injuries ...". Just want to clarify here - my understanding is Rufus is correct about the college FPI - doesn't do injury news or adjustments. The NFL FPI however does in fact handle QB changes during the year. (source - @bburkeESPN tweets re: NFL FPI upgrades & @PDawg206 1/28/2024 tweet on FPI finishing over 52.48% ATS in 2023 and spells out current injury implementation for college). 31:20 - MP correctly showed edge on Texas vs Michigan.

Some survivor talk which is maybe good for some normies, but is way worse than anything written on the old VegasWatch Blogspot (http://www.vegaswatch.org/) or basically any decent Survivor article. 41:40 - At one point brings up betting against rookie QBs and mentions TEN vs Caleb Williams and I think I'm about ready to tap out on this one. There's then some Bo Nix talk and I am extremely biased here because I don't think any of the analysis on his draft profile is remotely accurate and Nix was one of my strongest positions from a scouting standpoint. A lot of talk about age and starting as a freshman and none of these are the interesting data points in his draft profile, this is where the domain knowledge is problematic on these non-guest pods.

Will this Vegas trip podcast get posted and deleted? Going to sell my copy of the BTP "Lost Tapes" episode like it's the Wu Tang album.