Bet the Process - Jeff & Rufus Go Guest-less

Podcast Release Date: 2025-11-19
Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1euYDYTF98sGGDLcSMzFp8
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2025-11-20
Rating: 4.00

Notes:
7:00 - wanted to have Sam S on from Amazon at the suggestion of diggs but wasn’t allowed on because BTP is a gambling podcast.

8:15 - “When are you going to have diggs on so I can watch you stroke his ego in person?” “I don’t think you’re going to watch me stroke anything in person.” 

15:15 - Talking about onsides kicks before this and Jeff reads what sounds like an AI answer that his belief on surprise onsides kicks is likely an exaggeration and that they ran the dataset like 15 years ago. “My reality can just be my reality.” 

16:45 - Rufus isn’t betting much NFL but they are “seeding some prop markets”. 

Some NFL talk. “Yes I think SEA is very good.” Rufus has it SEA, LAR, KC. Some NCAAF futures talk not much interesting here.
 
30:20 - Rufus starting a new therapy / training coach. Jeff assumes their gender and I better download this one and place it on the shelf next to the cabana episode.

Jeff makes the argument for Georgia NCAAF futures and I am directionally aligned.

36:20 - “Does playing a harder schedule make you better?” and can that be quantified.  Rufus mentions a question his new trader asked - “is winning important?” in terms of two teams with same equal metrics but a different W-L record. Mentions nowhere in his college model is wins, but does think that in the NFL especially near end of year teams with bad records tend to underperform (unclear if that was an eye test statement or something they have looked at sounded like the latter, but don’t want to assume).
 
43:15 - BTP picks moving lines? Rufus thinks no. Miami OH +1.5 has moved. Oregon laid 9.5 currently 9. Georgia 44, hasn’t bet it, “Georgia is merciful” makes it 54. Missouri +9 it’s +7 now. Duke -6.5. Ohio State -31.5.