Bet the Process - John Reeder of Risk of Ruin

Podcast Release Date: 2025-12-10
Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/47udOJrYan7Ra4706S1MdG
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2025-12-22
Rating: 6.50

Notes:
Bias - Obviously, love the Risk of Ruin podcast so pretty biased going in.

My synopsis for this podcast is you're probably not going to find a ton of alpha, but I think it's valuable to learn about the voice behind one of the very best podcasts in the space. Think knowing your author is very important.

Opens with some college football futures discussion. Not a ton that was noteworthy. Bowl numbers aren't accurate with all the opt outs and then no NFL numbers since didn't have his NFL sheet.

13:35 - John Reeder interview starts. 14:35 - "I'm not an advantage player, more like a groupie of AP, dabbling in AP."

17:10 - What Got You Started? - Wife starts a business, got very tired to the area / region. Casinos were accessible and asks the question "what can I do in the casino where the odds aren't totally against me?". Thought about starting a podcast just about niche topics on areas of interest, decides he has many AP ideas and then Richard Munchkin introduces him to some people and away we go.

19:40 - APs Going Public Being -EV - "How do you deal with this issue?" (great question by Jeff). The answer is fascinating - paraphrasing focus on the reasons to say yes and not the reasons to say no, what makes the pitch to do his pod different than all the prior times the person has said no to similar requests, putting himself in the shoes of the perspective interviewee and being empathetic to their worldview. (Note - I love everything about this because this falls under a concept you're taught called MICE where persuasion can usually be accomplished through money, ideology, coercion or ego. Finding a common ideological ground is absolutely a very effective tactic). 21:20 - Tells the story of cold approaching Long-Term Capital, they say no initially, but then just sent a list of questions he would have asked and they say yes (love this approach). 23:20 - "Why did Long-term Capital fail?" Possibly overbetting, people copying them then everyone trying to exit the crowded trade, getting so big you become the market, etc. Mentions a bit later that two of the more successful episodes are about huge losses and not winning which I definitely gravitate towards as well.

26:20 - Prediction Markets - "You can look around right now and see a very cavalier attitude towards risk taking." Makes the argument about how the increased economic difficulties for younger generations are contributory to this attitude towards risk taking. 32:00 - Teaching Kids About EV - mentions in a recent episode a SIG trader teaching his kids by trading. 34:45 - brings up having your kids break down Kyle Shanahan calls lol. 35:30 - Brings up the going for 2 down 8 situation being "so straightforward", but the best part about that is there are some analytics people who 1) refuse to show their work but 2) are now flipping back in some instances (I know where I stand, don't really want to debate it here).

39:30 - "If you had a Million Dollars Who Would You Invest in of your podcast guests?" - Mentions the t_stephens97 episode which is the highest hagrinBPR rating by quite a wide margin. Some conversation about AP bettors and how they translate to the business world.

47:00 - Mentions never being able to find the "right" crypto guest. Interestingly enough listening to Jeff try and describe the crypto industry is a good reminder that basically everyone, even smart people, don't really understand the industry at all (mentions the cyclical nature, the mins and maxes). Turning this question inward, who would I suggest? A jaredfromsubway.eth would probably be in the ballpark. Someone like Tara MacAulay would be very good if you could get her to talk about the Bitmex leaderboard days. The problem with crypto guests is if you want the "real" people in the industry, you quickly realize there's almost no one that can talk intelligently about all the different disciplines needed to be highly versed in the ecosystem so crypto conversations tend to be focused more on that person's area of expertise. A lot of people pretend that they can though, another big problem.

49:30 - Dream Guests - Jeff Yass. Warren Buffett.

55:00 - Ethics of Podcasting - The most interesting part of this section is Reeder going back to the Rufus betting group episode where there were some hurt feelings at the end and how including / excluding this major piece of the story influences the story. "This isn't really the true story, this is a narrative about what happened."