Bet the Process - Ken Pomeroy

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-03-20 06:55:56
Rating: 6.75

Notes:
Calcutta talk - interesting talk about edge or lack of edge in the small group of normal competitors. Jeff clearly infers that Rufus is now someone with good edge in NCAAM so apprehension to be in a calcutta with a bunch of people with NCAAM edge. I appreciate the honesty where you can have an edge in the market, but not in this hyperelite subset.

Some pre KenPom bracket advice talk which, after listening to the Circles Off pod on this, echoed a lot of the same points about the relationship between contrarianism and pool size.

11:30 - KenPom interview starts. 13:15 - Jeff brings up Duq vs New Mexico KenPom rating difference while both 11 seeds. KenPom definitely surprised by Duq getting an 11 seed. 15:00 - KenPom brings up a point I’ve always wondered - why is this bracketing process so manual still / lack of automation. 17:30 - Preseason ratings + season long underachievers - Kansas with injuries. Conversely, Iowa St vastly overperformed preseason polling. 24:10 - Rufus asks why the B10 always underperforms in the tourney. 26:40 - Versatile team talk. Ken responds UConn (obv), Houston especially on defensive end.

28:00 - Great question - “any way to measure versatility analytically” - Ken responds it’s a hard problem, size of lineup, assists on offense are a good marker. I’m actually unaware of the research paper catalog on this topic, would be interested to know what’s out there and available.

29:00 - Another good question - Rufus brings up the Covid eligibility issue finally aging out in the next year. Ken actually mentions that the preseason ratings were better this year than ever possibly due to the limited amount of freshmen that are making real impacts.

32:00 - Another very good question - “how do you think about / measure team variance”. KenPom - very difficult to measure, quality of opponent varies so much more than say the NBA.