Bet the Process - Kevin Clark

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-09-14 07:05:56
Rating: 4.00

Notes:
4:00 - Rufus had WAS as their worst team going into week 1. Now has DEN the lowest team. (I do not have this and I was on top of the "Bo Nix isn't a 1st round prospect" mountain shouting. Feels like if you don't have CAR dead last you're doing something "different" & it should be a sizeable gap, go look at a composite ratings matrix. In fact, looking at a composite right now, MP really drags CAR back to the pack and there's STILL a gap).

10:25 - Rufus Current NCAAF: Had Arkansas move a bunch in his ratings, shot up, played them this week. Bet Minnesota which has moved a bunch. Rufus questioned if his ratings should be moving this much. Played Cal, Cal rating went up despite the huge positive turnover variance last week. Likes La Tech. Took Texas Tech.

16:50 - Survivor Talk: Just send people to survivorgrid? The only good point that I've heard about Survivor on BTP was Rufus mentioning earlier in the pod that last year they were doing projections on what would actually be the selections in Circa and, I'm assuming, how those numbers will differentiate from say a composite SurvivorGrid pick percentage. I think this is a really smart approach & I do think if you look at the historical Circa pick distribution there are some interesting #trendz there.

19:20 - Opens with a very topical Springfield pets joke. KC starts with some comments about his show which is entertaining, but no notes. Kevin says the one big thing he learns is that Twitter calling everyone in football "stupid" is generally wrong & there are a bunch of very smart football people (shockSTUN, Twitter warriors are wrong?). There's some debate over good/bad coaching especially around the analytical decisions with Jeff taking the position, if I can speak for him, that there are mostly knowable quantifiable decisions that are not being optimized vs Rufus saying that these are just a minor piece of coaching and the decisions are small. 36:55 - "You need a real data science person, not someone who did a Data Science bootcamp." Shots fired? Yes, lots of large data sets with confounders influencing variables and modeling requires someone skilled - this is the "state the obvious" episode of BTP.

43:05 - Week 1 Recap: KC says the Bears have a very improved process. Giving the pieces to Caleb that they never did for Fields. (Not sure what any of this has to do with Week 1). Follows with some riveting D. Watson talk that hasn't been covered ad nauseum by about 8 million people on the internet. 51:30: Worst Process in Week 1 - ATL Falcons. Talked about the Cousins shotgun / pistol stats in Week 1 and the lack of play action. "Seems like the front office there is split into two parts". (The PFF Effect?). 56:50 - There's a semi interesting question from Rufus about coaching scheme greats and early season starts. KOC mentions that defensive "scheme lords" might have some advantage here. Brings up the Dolphins motion innovations on offense as an example. Some talk about putting stuff on tape early and then not putting stuff on tape and breaking it out talet in like a Super Bowl (ex - Gronk, Pats).