Bet the Process - Kirk Evans

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-05-14 19:02:35
Rating: 6.00

Notes:
The summary of this pod is that it's totally fine, there's one good idea that starts around the 13min mark, but otherwise there's just not a lot of new ground here. Track bets, get data, CLV, some basic NBA talking points, etc. It's fine, it's short which limits the ground you can cover. The Circles Off version is somewhat better just due to format/length.Finding that there are certain lengths of podcast that are really hard to score well - just long enough that you aren’t overly focused and try and touch on a bunch of stuff and then not long enough to get the full picture.

6:05 - Kirk section starts.This podcast opens sort of weird. Jeff goes into a quick lead in about having some questions about his process and that the person who suggested the guest might be trying to bait them, while I greatly appreciate the honesty, despite me trying to come in as unbiased as possible, it does sort of set the tone.

7:25 - Background: Before this, thought the first interesting point is that they (his parter and him) "bet really any type of basketball league WNBA, NBA, Olympics, etc". That's pretty interesting considering the rulesets that govern those other leagues are different enough that they would require somewhat different approaches. (Sidenote - soccer leagues generally use the *same* ruleset and yet certain leagues function pretty differently than others and require pretty specific domain knowledge to be applied when modeling so my antennae are up.) Rufus VERY smartly goes back to this at 21:30.

Basic journey - started with overnights, found eventually to have CLV, work towards same day, re-evaluate, a lot of emphasis put on CLV. This gets met with a follow up from Rufus and we're launching into yet another CLV talking point discussion. Rufus bring up the concept of unique edge that doesn't get CLV (same old stuff). Kirk replies with 98% of time same data, different interpretation to develop edges. 10:35 - "Something people get wrong about CLV is that the close is the close obviously, but when information is put into the market makes it completely different". Then there's some "the injury news move is actually like the opener" and then some talk about liquidity and while the original point is accurate (which distills down to not all CLV is created equal which literally no one disputes), the subsequent discussion sort of diverges.

13:00 - Example of Edge: how there might be examples where a high usage player is ruled out, other prop for players on that team may adjust upwards, but the relationship between two players might actually cause the other player's usage/output to go down (gives Harden/Tucker example). Gives another example of Embiid being ruled out, market adjusting one way when it should have been the other based on pace/defensive factors (very good example). Closes with a good summary - "where sportsbooks are modeling/reacting to some base assumption like a high scoring player being ruled out that these models are generally reacting in one direction, but the reality is the opposite" this is where to look for edge. (So far best section of the pod because there's very obvious quick, algorithmic projection adjustments/sims being made by things like the SGP engine that might just not be true so an area of focus is to maybe find these discrepancies.) Rufus' follow up at 15:20 is exactly where my head was at (although not in question form).

17:20 - "I think having an intimate knowledge of a sport is important that's where I get a lot of my ideas."- Rufus. Yes, domain knowledge helps generally.

18:10 - Mixing Qualitative w/Quantitative: Model spits out a number, group may make adjustments, they track CLV and ROI both against the model and against the additional adjustments. (all pretty standard). (Sidenote - why doesn't anyone ever follow up with what's the actual net between the model vs added qual approach because this is a very easy way to sniff out frauds because anyone who is actually doing the above knows this number.)

21:30 - Modeling Different Leagues: Rufus asks how valuable lessons in the NBA translate into let's ay the WNBA which he's working on now. Says very valuable. Gives example of shot selection and shot creation differences between the two, wide gap in shot creation for the W.

25:30 - NBA Playoff Talk: A lot of the same analysis you hear elsewhere - NBA midseason rule change allowing Minny to crank up defensive pressure. Talks about Murray being pretty injured (despite reviewing this at 2-2, think this is still a valid take and definitely the market underpriced the injury concern here). 30:17 - Thinks BOS overwhelming title favorites, would still bet it today if he didn't already have a large position. More worried about DEN than MIN for BOS, BOS taking Gobert out into space (assuming healthy KP). 33:00 - NY / IND - can NYK OReb and control the pace or will IND exert it's will pace wise. High minutes for NYK players.