Bet the Process - NFL Wildcard Weekend with Judah Fortgang

Podcast Release Date: 2026-01-07
Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jOSgzoMq9sMhbLNK4EyRH
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2026-01-08
Rating: 5.50

Notes:
Bias - these game preview pods aren't my favorite since there isn't a ton that's relevant long-term.

Rufus likes Miami and makes them 6.4

3:45 - Jeff smartly asks why Rufus is so far off from SP+ and Rufus replies they have been high in Miami all year which makes sense.

6:15 - Rufus right inline with market Indiana 3.5

11:40 - NFL Calcutta - Rufus ends up with the Pats.
13:00 - Makes GB 2.5. Makes Jags small favorite. On market with the PHI game. Lean NE. Makes PIT -1, Rufus not as high on HOU (sounds like an emphasis on offensive capability thing). Futures portfolio - SEA yes 11 cents, Jags 3 cents, big no positions HOU BUF CHI NE. Big DEN Super Bowl position.

17:00 - Judah section starts - some talk about variance, no long term star QB trend with missing the playoffs, one score game success variance all stuff we’ve heard a ton.

21:30 - Jeff asks about some macro stuff that Judah thought shifted. Mentioned strategy to end 1Hs shifting which I thought was an interesting statement with running more in that version of the 2 minute drill. Thinks base rate of QB play was down. Kickoff rules changing / accelerating some of these trends.

26:05 - Games this Week - (notes will be brief here unless I hear something that I haven’t heard elsewhere).
LAR / CAR - talk about LAR defensive lapses in the second half of season in pass coverage. Rufus talks about don’t big underdogs want to shorten the game and Judah mentions “that might be macro true, micro / this game maybe not as true” re: attacking the Rams pass coverage. Rufus mentions there’s some weather stuff this week to note.

GB/CHI - bunch of CHI D bottom third metrics, Love leads many metrics when on schedule / in-system reps so Love should be successful as long as the wind cooperates in this game. Rufus a Malik Willis fan apparently. Rufus asks about props around the 37 minute mark in re: weather.

BUF/JAX - Judah has Jags and Jags alts as his favorite plays this weekend. Mentions the structural offensive changes later in season. Mentions downfield throw rate. Thinks JA17 isn’t close to healthy. Scramble rate down. Rufus smartly mentions the scramble rate / decision making / etc increasing in the playoffs due to stakes. Jags D top 5 in rush metrics, teams have thrown heavily against them.

SF/PHI - Trent Williams injury obv. PHI O success rate woes. Some talk about how there are certain game states that would change the win probs more so than normal due to the game state forcing one of the bad units into a worse situation.

LAC / NE - NE run D not as good 2H of year but healthier and should be better.

PIT / HOU - bunch of “game state matters a ton” both directions in this one.