Bet the Process - Saramek / Will

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Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-08-01 08:57:20
Rating: 7.00

Notes:
There's a large component of golf on this podcast so there's going to be very little I can provide in terms of useful recap, but we'll try.

4:25 - So Will talks about being heavy Spainish players for the Euro final, the one interesting note here was that for soccer DFS he mentions that the biggest GPPs on soccer don't come close to the medium sized GPPs for NFL, but decent size. Mentions that they actually do more golf now than soccer. (Sidenote - this is why I don't do golf, I swear every single super smart person is doing golf it's nuts.)

5:30 - Group: They do have an office, business partner Dan, they move the op to Bali. Makes an interesting point about the timing of him teaching himself modeling lining up perfectly with the start of many online course offerings. Now they have a "team" of data scientists / data analysts.

12:15 - "Since there's no sports modeling book or glossary out there you have all these terms & jargon that really aren't official" - I definitely run into this myself, since I am not classically trained I sometimes don't know the correct term which confuses someone more classically trained in modeling. I wonder if such a glossary existed if it would even be adopted/used, probably not.

14:55 - Jeff mentions being part of "The Forum" modeled after YPO (Young Presidents Organization), 8-9 people that meet once a month for 4 hours. originally started out of "True Ventures", founders/CEOs out of that portfolio.

20:10 - Will puts on an in-person version of Jeff's Forum group, 40 or so people in size. They do do formal sessions, not as robust as Bet Bash, but people might be sharing more since it's a more intimate setting. A bunch of talk about the line he walks betwene expanding it and keeping it intimate and how it can quickly change the nature of the event if it grows too large. All good points, just not sure most listeners get much out of it.

I'm not a golf guy so the below is just more of a transcription, I have no idea what's useful or not.

29:40: Golf Open Championship Talk: Mentions that there seems to be a tee time advantage this year - "late, early". Rufus brings up the point about the very wide range of tee times (~7am-~4pm) (think it ended up 6:35a-4:27p or something crazy like that). Some talk about links courses and the rewarding of skill. Weighting prior Opens, prior links courses, prior scores at this course and meshing those together. Will mentions that this course specifically ranks in the 95th percentile in "sensitivity to skill". Jeff asks if the market overweights course fit, but Will says it's more course history. Later Jeff asks about Aberg and Rufus does give out his fair pre and post tee time being announced which should give you an idea on the size of the effect.
38:45 - Will talks about how his model and Rufus' model differs and Will mentions how they handle tour experience or "experience in the region". Rufus mentions the DataGolf decomposition of their numbers and the "nationality effect".
41:30 - Will mentions an interesting point about "how far back do you even go measuring this nationality effect" and brings up some good reasons why it would be possibly weaker now.

Ends with some contest selections that I am pretty sure they purposefully gave out picks that wouldn't reveal their true model's preferred choices (understandable).