Circles Off - Ep 144 Prop Tool

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-03-13 05:37:03
Rating: 4.50

Notes:
This is going to be a pod that I think elicits some pretty strong reactions. The 10-50 minute section is basically a somewhat (not really) veiled advertisement for the coming new Betstamp prop tool with some prop market discussion sprinkled in.

Going to do something different - going to address the pod Memento style.

51:00 - The Tweets that Trigger Us section. Absolutely entertaining. Funny slip at 57:15 - "You can not eat at Five Dimes!" #RIPTony 1:14:25 - Knish takes some shrapnel lol.

Now, to the section that will be a source of many strong opinions and I mute the thread.

13:30 - Betstamp working on a tool to beat player props, in testing phase now, but it appears functional and there’s an acct you can see the tracked bets.

21:00 - "Your account will last longer betting player props than betting college football/hoops totals and getting two points of CLV."
"I've had accts last longer betting player props than betting other derivatives like NHL 1st periods or NBA 1Hs."
"To the sportsbooks Rob has reached out to 50-60% of their action is coming in on player props now."

37:00 - Makes the argument for the sort of "golden age" for player props which everyone can debate amongst themselves, but the argument is that despite the increased efficiency over the last few years, there are more opportunities. Seems logical enough. However, this is followed with "I do think in a few years that this edge will dry up." I offer no additional commentary here.

39:40 - "This is an absolutely a massive money making opportunity ... not financial advice." Just a heads up to da boys in Canada eh, we have already speedrun this approach in crypto, it does not end well sometimes in da courts ya hosers. Tacking on "NFI" or "in minecraft" may not save you. Stay away from the rocket emojis. #NotALawyerFollowHagrinLAW

42:00 - "The outlier is not always a great bet." Rob is absolutely correct, it's not an original point, but it's definitely one to hammer home especially to people exploring this type of approach for the first time.
43:00 - "Some books are slower to react to injury news than others." Again not new news, but you should always be looking to identify exactly how each out works and Rob is right to hammer this point home continuously.


This acct isn't for editorializing, it's to give you a shortcut to consuming tons of content and extract the value that was presented. That is my defined goal with this account & I'm mostly happy with how this endeavor has progressed.

I'll say this - do these tools work? Absolutely, 100%. How do I know? Most of us have built similar things privately and they absolutely work. Do some sharp people hate these tools because they destroy edges? Absolutely. Some % of the reaction will be people just mad that their edges are about to lessen or outright disappear.

But then we get to the statement at 1:27:30 which is the most important statement in the podcast - “they are opening up certain tranches to see how long the edge can last and how many subscribers it can handle”. Disappointing that the most important statement, that I am glad they addressed, was buried at the very end (this is why we listen to the end). Would have preferred this in the 40 minute advertisement section because it’s literally the most important disclaimer with a tool like this - even Unabated sort of figured this out which is why they announced that special tier right out the gate.

My issue is the same issue I had (but never really spoke about) with the Unabated Concierge service. Unabated realized that tools like these do. not. scale. beyond a certain n players so they took the approach of self-limiting, but charging more. It's not even that easy to come up with a theoretical max n because a lone wolf != a small group != a large group != Spanky != someone like me who could capture the raw traffic and literally automate everything faster than you could even look at the UI. A tool like this can probably accommodate several thousand lone wolves. It might be able to accommodate 250-500 small groups. It probably could accommodate 20-75 large groups. Spanky and his 30 year old Perl scripts could make life increasingly difficult for other subs. Someone like me could cause real damage to the ecosystem if I was truly Chaotic Evil (I am) and I cared enough (luckily I don’t other stuff occupies my time).

The size of n matters.
The composition of n might matter more.
There is some theoretical maximum of subs that a tool like this can handle that is entirely dependent of the composition of the subs.
Users will likely get value from a tool like this for some period of time, could be years and you could make enough money you don’t care the edge gets destroyed by then, but you should constantly check to make sure the value prop remains in your favor.