Circles Off - Ep 147 - Corbie

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-04-01 07:27:24
Rating: 1.50

Notes:

Circle's Off has routinely gotten some of the highest grades of all the pods I reviewed. This was awful. This was 2 hours long and I'm really not sure how much the guest even talked the last hour and the limited contributions were whatever. He talked for the first half of the pod and then he turned into AJ Hawk.There was absolutely nothing actionable the entire 2 hours interspersed with a bunch of insane comments.The cherry on top is the section at 48 minutes which covers the “stealing of edges” controversy which, if you belive a word of that, let me know (and I had no idea who this person was before I hit play so no bias going in other than knowing how the RAS discord operated).

Everyone is amazed by the corporate team naming in KBO. No one follows Korean esports I guess. 5:25 - "I guess Korea doesn't have any more primary sports, Korean baseball gets them going." K League? KBO is way more of a party these days for sure, but the K League is definitely popular.

21:00 - More player prop vs main market profiling discussion where we act like operators trying to figure out the profiling of derivatives users is a Millenium Prize Problem.

26:35 - "One of the biggest things people mistake right now, mostly amongst mid level people who are somewhat winning and may have an edge is that they are misunderstanding how truly easy it is to lose money over a small sample size." Literally no one I have ever met who actually qualifies as someone with an edge doesn't understand this. Any person who can actually quantify their edge understands the variance that comes with wagering, what are we even doing here. This is such a strawman I actually had to rewind several times to make sure I heard it right. If you’ve actually encountered people like this, maybe try hanging out with people who breathe through their nose?

I'd like to point out I'm 30 minutes in and I have absolutely no earthly idea what this pod is about.

31:00 - Was betting NCAAM totals overnight, does less of that now. Gives example of Montana's Money Williams getting injured (it was against UC Irvine) and the line being 4 everywhere (it was 4.5 Pinny/Cris but close enough really good recall) and the market not adjusting properly in his mind (note - I agree, I bet Weber that day as well. I'd say that Aanen Moody was their best player as well as a senior, but the point about the impact of losing a good player not being reflected seemingly at all in the market stands.)

33:45 - "No one who is betting real real money the biggest groups know who any college basketball player is."
"Yes and no."
"The originators I talked to in these groups, these guys don't know either."
Lol, okay. I could type a lot about this, this episode doesn't really deserve a dissent.

43:00 - This conversation is somehow getting dumber. Rob asks about live injury feeds for NCAAM and I got excited we might talk about useful process and instead the convo goes completely off the rails and we go to curling. Question literally never gets answered other than some nonsense about some sports being more televised which wasn’t even the point of the original question.

48:00 - Stealing edges talk. "Why is there a subsection of GT that thinks you're a scumbag?" "I joined the RAS Discord and I was instantly banned." No way - you couldn't get Mike to ban the "Make $20k in crypto just DM me bots" for 8 hours sometimes, no less get yourself instantly banned. And we know Ed only knows how to delete the entire server instance. And Elihu was too busy banning AD in #politics. "I did 5 days of work" - didn't he just say he contacted his dev? Oh, and he has a paid Discord. Of course. "If it had won I would have given you the money" - lol no way. Johnny - "Fair enough." Lol.

52:00 - Discord bots talk. People, install Visual Code, import discord.js open up ChatGPT and you can basically have code spit out for anything you need.

Lots of Ohtani talk. Nothing of interest here, a few minor details wrong, whatever mostly fine.

Tweets that Annoy Us - always entertaining.The show at least gets a little funny at this point and the last half hour is probably the only redeeming section but only for the entertainment / laugh value.

1:33:00 - Some talk about some picks that aren't tracked. We going to talk about the verified Betstamp picks record vs the unverified picks record? I've seen the screenshots, you'll never guess which picks do better. Some complaining about people tracking?

1:42:00 - His Plus Ev Move - Eats Chic-Fil-A 3x a day based on some Sam Hinkie decision fatigue angle. I so desperately want to just stop listening. His Minus EV move is golfing because of a bunch of reasons including "the weather is usually bad" I don't even know anymore we're just saying things now.