Circles Off - Ep 154 - How to NOT Bet for Income

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-05-17 09:10:43
Rating: 2.00

Notes:
Bias - This sounds like it's going to be "Least Common Denominator" reaction content and, I get it it's popular and they are in the content business, but this type of content isn't for me. If that's your thing, you'll enjoy this more than I likely will.

Summary - It was somehow way, way, way worse than I even expected.

8:25 - Kyle Kirms "The Sauce" video review. Two seconds in I'm already annoyed. 9:40 - "I don't mind this guy." Yup, going to be a long 70 minutes. "He's sounding sharp right now I will say." No, he's really not.

14:55 - Bankroll Mgmt: 4 minutes on bankroll management.

26:00 - Kirms says "parlays are mathematically bad bets" and here comes the standard parlay talk. Then something about "winning bettors don't post slips with ticket numbers" without anyone saying the *actual* reason why you don't display ticket numbers or barcodes (which was also not mentioned). 31:37 - "That was a historic fact that's why the parlay was invented" followed by "I made that up". This is so bad.

35:00 - "The stipulation is they are doing this professionally." "Honestly, even not professionally." Even the producer Zack is like "come on" which is all you need to know. This is the dumbest 90 seconds Circles Off has recorded since I have been listening to these. Good on the others to push back.

42:35 - "Practically, if you only have $500, don't bet." On this we agree. The rationale was for bonus churning, which is definitely an angle, but there are many reasons why this is correct, but I'm too annoyed to type them all out. But, props for saying an actual truth which is many times the answer is actually "don't bet".

46:00 - Kirms gets to a point here he says ignore the prior advice and here comes Martingale. 9.5 minutes on Martingale is bad. Riveting.

1:01:00 - Kirms talks about tracking bets looking for "patterns". This is all so bad and pointless. Followed by some bet tracking stuff which is fine.

1:07:30 - "No hard feelings Kyle, we're just ripping on the advice I'm sure you're a nice guy or whatever and it was a good video and I genuinely think he's trying to make a difference don't think he's trying to scam anyone, sell his picks." "Good intent, bad advice, but I don't excuse it." Nope. This ain't it. It's the year 2024 you hosers, "Content Scams" are a thing. You don't have to sell an actual product, you don't have to sell actual picks, you absolutely, under no circumstances gotta hand it to him. Call him a moron and move on. The cherry on top of this moronic conclusion - HE SELLS PICKS YOU HOSERS. The video isn't being produced in a vacuum just go to his freaking website. It's not "good intent" he IS "selling his picks" (in a super scammy monthly subscription that will auto renew kind of way too).

Lastly, again, I’ve said this before - con in conman stands for confidence (first used around 1849). The best confidence men (people) will project themselves as “nice guys”. Stop saying “seems like a nice guy” as some platitude, the designation is meaningless for how you should interpret their behaviors.

1:12:20 - "We should reach out to him to see if he wants to do an episode." Yeah, that's exactly what you should do. /s

Ends with Rob bringing up an interesting topic -EV advice - don’t vouch for people and slyly mentions there’s been a bunch of big stiffs behind the scenes. I know of 4 big ones in just the last few weeks, stay safe out there so good advice.