Circles Off - Ep 158 - DrunkenGoon

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-06-25 05:06:09
Rating: 8.00

Notes:
Bias - Big fan of DG's although I don't know him *that* well so I think I can objectively listen and grade. DG posts his fairs pretty regularly, his domain knowledge of soccer is absolutely top tier and, with soccer specifically, you can spot the frauds in the chat from the real deal *very* easily - DG is the real deal. (Soccer really lends itself to exposing non-sharps extremely quickly & it's the one thing that's kept my betting interest since 2020 b/c of how complex it is).

5:30 - Rob mentions password advice and doesn't mention MFA. Off to a good start.

6:20 - DG section starts. DG was StarLizard / Tony Bloom adjacent.
8:15 - Origin story: Born in Romania (didn't know that), moved to Canada at 17. Romania no age limit for betting - Grade 4 he starts betting, Grade 7 they go 12-1, but they lived in a town of gypsies so they get jumped outside school, they end up cashing it a few days later once bets settled, but since it was all favorites, they win $35, split 2 ways. Lol. Has been betting 40 years - still plays soccer, refs soccer, kids play, etc so soccer is 24/7 for DG. In 90s, bet hockey at Proline.

15:40 - Christmas Incident: Soccer on Proline, Boxing Day, England usually starts most games at 10am, Boxing Day they started early, odds stayed up until games were final, some paid out before they caught on.

17:20 - Traveling through Europe, picks up a GQ, sees an ad for Intertops and that's his first offshore.

19:25 - Soccer Betting: 2003-4, interviewed by a European betting group where they spotted him on a forum. Flies to Manchester and joins this group. Did some handicapping, previews, backend data management for 15 years like StarLizard. Did MLS previews. 3-4 sources for probably lineups, ran through the system and looked at lineup prediction accuracy, DG also submitted his fairs. For MLS, notice the markets move a bunch right at kick because limits go up and big groups start slamming the line. Did prematch trading during this time.

25:10 - "First off you care who bets it, not how much they bet it." (Rob "MmmHmm". Just an instant shut down of this topic by DG lol). 26:10 - While consulting at the sportsbook, EPL, huge volume, but about 5% would win pre-match. EPL money will balance out, but MLS money generally doesn't balance out one side will just get bet. Post = last hour, 1-2% probably can win into this liquidity.

31:45 - Wide Variety of Soccer Markets: As a trader, very hard obviously, but you just hope you win in the aggregate. The league matters for profiling and traders talk to marketing to target markets to a user who does worse in other soccer markets. DG tries to do pricing the day before the FOLLOWING week to try and curtail recency bias (so I do not do this, this is the first thing that I have heard DG say that differs from my process in the many many months in the same chat). Will bet pretty early, will hit Asia which gives a slight advantage in betting early (can confirm). Doesn't do too much on game day, but some lineup stuff.

37:55 - Soccer News: Very challenging, network of contacts, forums, Twitter lists, etc. "Know HOW to react to lineup changes." - very important.

(Note - so this is a pet peeve of mine since I started doing soccer full-time in 2020. Why does no one EVER bring up the language barriers when it comes to news? Sure, we're trending to a world of BabelFish level real-time fish in the ear translation, but we aren't there yet. I struggle with this issue many hours every single day - i.e. not only are you doing just natural language processing, you're adding many language translation on top of that which is an insanely hard technical problem and then trying to automate that process adds another level of complexity. Am I approaching this wrong? Why does no one else run into language barrier issues? It sounds like DG gets around this through having this vast network of people who are likely processing info in the local language and then relaying it back to DG, but what is everyone else doing?)

40:15 - Expected Goals: Mentions for people looking to get a good understanding, start with the book The Expected Goals Philosophy. Tools - Sofascore, TransferMarket, OddsPortal, OddsChecker, OddsAPI - DG is a database administrator by trade so managing data is normal. 43:15 - "MLS is sort of a unicorn - sometimes doesn't move on news." (this is true).

44:35 - Language mention! Talks about being able to process some French, game day limits start at midnight, reads L'Equipe that does a decent job with lineups so there's a tiny window there for larger leagues, so there is some edge there due to language. (See this is why DG is legit, there are certain shibboleths that if you actually do this you know people should be mentioning). 46:20 - Rob mentions "maybe the soccer market is not what I thought it was". (100% agreed, in 2020 I was under the impression the soccer market was like trading the 1 minute chart of some large cap, it's definitely not like that, but you have to pick your spots and know what you don't know).

49:20 - Euro 2024: Lower on England, fair on England was +550 to ship. Lower on Italy, Italy between generations. Long shots - +6813 for Switzerland, Denmark 40:1 or better. Germany coaching change has done wonders, Germans have done well in European club cups, much better spot now than a year ago. (Notice, he has Yes/No fairs for basically everything and replies instantly with pricing, you'll hear on other pods with other "originators" hesitation, etc. just a small signal that you pick up on listening to the real deal vs a lot of the fraud podcasts I have listened to.)

56:55 - Copa America: Lower on the USA, low on the coach (to the applause of soccer chat). Colombia and Uruguay would be the value plays there with everyone on the Argentina/Messi and Brazil hype trains. Canada - new manager, unlikely they get out of the group.

1:02:50 - Advice to Casual Soccer Bettors: Attack smaller markets, some smaller markets are not direct derivatives to the 3-way. Smaller markets can be hit, but you have to be quick on news. (Rob then incorrectly says Ricky Bobby's Dad never says the "If you're not first, you're last" line which he does at Career Day after getting thrown out of the school and then clarifies later he was high when he said it and that it makes no sense. Incorrectly quote Talladega Nights and I'm gonna come at you like a spider monkey.)

+/- EV - Don't go to Costco on the weekends, always read (doesn't have to be books). 1:15:45 - Rob's "don't follow both people in a couple on social" is FANTASTIC advice and he's 100% right that it's an age thing. Great +EV move, it's just content duplication.