Circles Off - Ep 165 - PropDude7

Podcast Release Date: 2024-08-01
Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/42kohCQHyOHZLNqm5bZYjT
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-09-14 07:58:32
Rating: 7.00

Notes:
Ran the BetStamp social media account. IRL friend of Johnny. Now bets props.

5:25 - Origination Story: Older friends, get account, Ontario gaming, fun story about favorite bet being an early one of Lamar 50:1 MVP in his MVP year at Buckeye skin. That's how he gets into props, this PPH. 9:50 - Now he's betting NFL/NBA player props, some MLB player and game props, but trying to enjoy the Canadian summer. 10:40 - Interesting, bet log sorted by overs and unders, overs 1-2% ROI, unders double digit ROI (I feel like this because I have similar splits except my overs were a lifetime loser for many, many, many years while unders hit at a very high ROI %. Always thought it was confounding variable thing in my modeling, never figured it out.) 11:30 - Started using Betstamp Pro and a top down approach.

13:30 - Scaling Top/Down: Depends where you're located. Depends on partners. Two options - grow sideways or upwards. Upwards - looking into markets that some books don't offer. Example - MGM, 365 have markets other books don't, there are mispricings here. Events that don't happen that often - ex: MLB All-Star game. Good discussion about MLB All-Star game pricing. "These things don't really require much math - they just require some domain knowledge, thinking in probabilities, looking for edge in niche markets." Good line. (Really enjoyed this section, methodical, well-explained, good stuff.)

17:30 - Account Seasoning: Home teams in your area. Season using laying it off at an exchange. Want to be redepositing. Expand out to SGPs and price them out at a bunch of different sportsbooks. Widen yourself - network, possibly taking your chances meeting new people.

20:45 - Social Media Manager at Betstamp: Graduating college, Johnny calls him up looking to see if he wants to help with the venture. Started working out of a basement apartment (I actually don't know the Betstamp origin story, is this in an old CO pod?). Bet tracking, reached out to touts for pick tracking. Most said no (shockSTUN) and those that said yes asked for alterations in the record. There was an edge back in the day that following accounts on Betstamp that trailing some of the better cappers was profitable (like Telemechus). Did make partnerships through the Betstamp account/DMs, learned via tweeting. 3-way convo talking about running the social media account more loosely vs running it like a professional corporate business and the former approach was much more effective. (Interesting point, I'm not a content guy, this is likely one of the numerous reasons why, I wouldn't be nearly as effective as PropDude's efforts were). 35:00 - Interesting Betstamp history which I didn't realize, but knew pieces of - PropDude was manually tracking the picks Rufus was giving out on BTP and then they started losing so Rufus was forced to engage and that engagement brought traffic to the app.

35:40 - Selling Picks: Has switched to believing it's a negative over time. Would not sell picks even if it would make more money than his bets. "Feels worse losing other people's money." 42:00 - Tout Credibility Checklist:
1) Are they posting prices with their picks? No, probably a losing bettor.
2) Are they tracking their bets against a sharp book, where are they tracking it? Check into the Pikkit tracking issues (friends bets, edits to bet history, limited sportsbooks). Are they tracking against a sharp book?
3) Can they get down too much money at rec books? If yes, they are likely a losing bettor.
4) Do their releases cause line movements?
5) Do they have Twitter comments off? If yes, probably a fraud.

54:00 - Rob tells a story about meeting a trader where they checked Betstamp accounts to see if they won. (That's a new one, hadn't thought of that at all - seems like a pretty weak signal, but I could see edge cases being high signal and getting out in front as an operator could be interesting after data mining the account).

1:01:10 - Mt Rushmore of People Who Trigger Him: Krabs (no idea). Apparently Krabs threatened to break his neck, seems like a person I am glad I don't know. Trent (BIWT). (Agreed, garbage, predatory content). Rob still loves the short form Trent content. Apparently tried to get him on the pod and he was referred to his agent? Get lawst. JJGruden - too prideful to learn from the others on the episode he was on. TrailJSports. Who? I didn't get this name right, apparently he's rebranded, not important enough to get it right.

1:10:30 - PlusEv: Dogs. "No better feeling than going home to your dog." -EV: Saving too much especially when young, make sure you're comfortable, but don't oversave and enjoy life. Johnny reminds me he's not a big dog guy and you just get reminded that it all makes sense once you hear that. -EV from Johnny is store bought tomato sauce. Absolutely correct here, hard to describe to non-Italians/Sicilians, if you're younger and you have an Italian/Sicilian grandma, treasure it while she's around. Johnny's second -EV is tap vs bottled water and while it's a very good conversation to have, we basically have the lowest IQ version of this discussion possible. I will say I do appreciate Johnny bringing up the issue though and encourage people to understand how this very basic thing functions in our society so props for bringing it up. I spoke to a CO guest in DMs and he mentioned some inside baseball how CO might record like 3 pods in a day so I can easily imagine how coming up with all these +/-EVs is extremely hard so I am sympathetic to the difficulty here. However, you have to mention the bullet points here - your area, pipes, federal regulations and what is and isn't governed, where each bottled company sources their water *really*, PFOS, things like 1,4-dioxane, forever chemicals, etc. I could do an 8 hour show just on this topic - source: Both my partner and I do/did this type of environmental work for a living. Rob does save the segment with the ice point (absolutely accurate, most ice making devices are extremely filthy and poorly maintained) after making what was essentially the Archer "fish s**t in it" point.