Circles Off - Ep 188 - Elf (yElff_)

Podcast Release Date: 2025-02-27
Podcast Link: Episode deleted from Spotify and Youtube
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2025-03-16
Rating: 7.50

Notes:
Bias - I think what Elf is doing with the Spaces is an extremely smart content play & I hope he converts it into a money printer for himself. However, they are completely unlistenable in their entirety to anyone who is a high functioning adult. Been lucky to have NotRAS Discord as a tremendous resource to summarize and alert real-time on must hear content to keep up with the drama and new faces/names so big thank you to the guys in there. The real Spaces value might be the accounts we farm along the way, but just bringing together people like Elf does is a highly valuable skill. Foreshadowing - this pod really changes my opinion on Elf in a very positive way of him the person, greatly enjoyed.

3:00 - Origin Story: Funny starts out with "I think my story is similar", but mentions seeing the ads on TV and I'm just sort of blown away already because it's a reminder to an old person like me that this is how young people are growing up. Seeing ads wasn't even a thing for someone like me. Starts by converting bonus bets. Doesn't watch sports. Credits Alex Monahan & OddsJam for really getting started on the right path on top down betting. Dec 2023 is his breakout month - starts live arbing. Currently using 3 tools, 6 monitors, "I'm cracked out". Betting today - works a full day, locks in at 5pm, betting isn't like work, "needs stimulus", some pre-event stuff, will look for live opportunities. Currently, studying to be an actuary, done with 4 of the 7 tests (very hard tests).

12:30 - Makes more from content than he does his job, mentions he thinks being a licensed actuary would be good for the brand (very smart). 15:20 - "It's all about who you can trust and I don't trust anyone." (Sidenote - I really don't enjoy his hosting style, but I really enjoy this episode and glad he did it / I reviewed because it completely changed my impression of him. When you see him have every last grifter on these Spaces, you just assume he's an idiot, but this interview really paints a much better picture of who he is). 16:00 - Rob asks him about arbing & how the industry sees it and he answers with "it's part of the ecosystem, I'm fully aware" of the stigma. 17:05 - Has moved from straight delta neutral arbing to taking on some directional risk, has been able to determine who is actually sharp in the markets, larger bankroll now. Some talk about starting out and burning accounts, brings up the very relatable story (22:00) of when ESPNBet launched and people laying off their ESPNBet action at Caesar's and Fanduel and then Elf gets limited at Caesar's down $9k (crazy time that was).

23:20 - Twitter Spaces: Started live streaming his arbing on Kick. Leaked too many edges live. Got so much hate in the past from pros, understands it now. nbagreens comes to him with an edge so he stops streaming. Tells story of printing money during this time, 10-12 guys/accts go to AZ AirBNB to celebrate, all start betting from this location into FanDuel. Rob mentions "same IP?" and Elf says no different IPs, different devices. (Womp, womp - this is the midcurve take/convo on geolocation software capabilities, this is like Level 1 of avoiding detection things to worry about, but this isn't even remotely close to saving you. To get an idea of exactly how midcurve this is, go listen to / find my review of the Business of Betting podcast Episode 202 with Manu Gambhir specifically the story at 15:50). 29:40 - Started the Spaces because he was bored, wanted to talk to someone. 32:00 - Beef with Omar - Apparently Omar was doing Spaces first, Omar had some tech issues (excuse?) where Elf couldn't speak so Elf started his own Spaces & they took off. Elf states his SPaces > Omar's because he understands sharp gambling much better than Omar who doesn't. (This is why I'm glad he did this pod - my impression of listening to him host and allowing people to say just completely wrong things for hours upon hours had negatively influenced my opinion of him b/c there's no way I could tolerate 95% of what is said without crashing out. But, in the first 20 minutes of this pod, you can tell Elf clearly gets "it" so there's this pretty big disconnect between his knowledge, his ability, his character and his hosting "style" and the concept behind the Spaces).

35:00 - Strengths: Getting people on, "letting people tell their stories no matter how controversial, I allow people to question them". (Me - I would never platform these people which is why I can't listen to these Spaces. I'm more than double Elf's age, when I grew up, not everyone had or, frankly, deserved a voice. His approach is the opposite. It's good content for sure, but I'd argue 1) what is the value to allowing this other than profiting off this content creation and 2) are you aware of the harm/potential harm you're doing by giving these people such large platforms?). Rob brings up this exact point immediately after I type this. Elf basically absconds responsibility which IMO is nonsense and the proof of this is he gets doxxed by one of these insane people days after this podcast so enjoy your own version of Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes. Mentions the grifters are well spoken - yes this is how that works, we have covered many times in the reviews that ConMan is short for Confidence Man - nice, well spoken != trust. Elf mentions as a retort that these people have large platforms and don't need him & this is where Elf displays his inexperience in this world. These people can have high follower counts, but 1) they don't convert super well 2) I just checked a few of them, many have huge %s of fake followers 3) they churn the converts at super high rates because they are providing something that has negative value. Rob brings up the "glazing" accusations - I think the above proves it's not "glazing", but he truly believes he's handling it correctly. The one thing I do agree with Elf on is 41:00 in he talks about how he has to keep the topics moving, etc and that Elf is incredibly excellent at, he's very good at reading the pulse of the convo and moving on. Elf mentions growing the listenership, networking during the Spaces (the real value here) and hopes to monetize it more in the future (I actually do hope he prints with this as long as everyone realizes this is the Jerry Springer of Sports Betting). 54:40 - Ha, Rob mentions Jerry Springer. Elf tries to defend the guests, mentions the follower count again, it's just this eye opening experience for a boomer like me that young people care about (inflated) follower counts. Just sitting here shaking my head.

1:01:30 - Perception from Outside: Answers super honestly, love is answer that yes you care, you don't want to be attacked daily. Mentions Gambling Twitter getting worse although mentions that some of it is because of the insane crackdown by books, no more educational content.

1:10:00 - Doxxing: They briefly cover this, all mention it's bad ... and right before they were speculating with real names on the ID of MotV. High comedy. Follows up with some pick selling talk where there's nothing new. Co host asks "how do we educate people"? The only correct answer is #YesAllTouts. 1:16:00 - Elf brings up a VERY good point about educational content for someone like him who is still grinding vs someone like Rob is already set for life and I know that I am guilty of this too that I don't have to "worry" about the grind when it comes to educational information. I'd argue though that there have been plenty of world class bettors who have helped me asking for nothing in return and edges still exist so a lot of the worrying is overblown, but Elf is also correct about certain, easily accessible, low barrier of entry edges.

Elf mentions Portnoy is his white whale. Rob mentions "Nadu is essential to the show" and I'm about ready to tap out.

1:29:00 - +/-EV - +EV - Networking, just shoot for the stars, "don't be afraid of getting turned down". (Great advice).

Have to say, I enjoyed this pod a ton, Elf the person seems fantastic, absolutely rooting for him and was not expecting this after my exposure to Elf the Host. Think as some of us age out, having young people like Elf already so advanced at his age (I wasn't anywhere near as sophisticated at his age) is very encouraging for the space as the "Olds" pass the torch. Completely disagree with much of his outlook on platforming, but understand his PoV, but he's wrong although I understand the fine line he is trying to walk with producing content, profiting while trying to limit the harm he's doing platforming these grifters. That said, rooting for him, good luck young man.