Circles Off - Ep 190? - Gambling Qs Nobody Would Answer

Podcast Release Date: 2025-03-13
Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/56HUrfDIZGEdXnJhCev66Q
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2025-03-16
Rating: 7.25

Notes:
4:45 - Biggest Bet Placed: Super Bowl National Anthem when Pink was singing - Won, Rob knew the outcome, Knish I think had the same answer (~$100k).

8:30 - Biggest Rec Misconception: "Fading the public." Knish brings up a good about that this isn't really a thing it seems with the younger / Gen Z bettors. Rob brings up that younger guys bring up that there aren't "pro bettors" (definitely have heard this in the Spaces as well).

11:30 - Weirdest Prop Bet: Knish - Miss Universe Contest. Pizzola - "PartyBets was betting on the last digit of the closing price of the Nikkei". Knish has absolutely no Earthly idea what the Nikkei is lol.

17:05 - Wildest Thing to Get a Bet Down: Knish - filling out Proline cards until his hand cramped. Rob - Having to use someone he despised to get down (lol).

21:05 - Sharpest Bettor You've Met: Rob - Zeljko Ranogajec. Met him at Bet Bash. "Never lose your drive, it's never enough." Rob paints the hilarious picture of Zeljko getting approached by someone like GRP with his NFL portfolio lol. Knish talks about Zeljko and his plays getting botted. Knish - callcustservice / Josh (great pick, I don't know Josh really at all, but absolutely immaculate reputation). Knish bring up some guy named "hagrin", Rob mentions he is his "white whale". Mentioning me here is borderline ridiculous. First, there are many, way more interesting/sharp people to interview than me just in the NotRAS Discord - those are a really good group of guys all whom are sharp in their own ways & I learn in there constantly. Second, I'm not opposed to doing Circles Off, but I just don't really have anything to say currently. My current interests/passions are extremely esoteric and uninteresting to the wider listening audience.

Also, to even be mentioned in the same section as Zeljko is so wildly inappropriate it's hard to overstate. Zeljko is a literal walking god, I'm just a guy with a computer.

25:50 - Becoming a Mover: Knish - access to a ton of accounts and liquidity. PPHs, local legalized, casino liquidity, apps, building connections so that if he can't get down, he can send it to someone else. Takes a lot of capital. When it goes bad? 1) don't know what's good 2) overbetting 3) not fully capitalized. "If I lost every bet in a day, would I still have enough capital to operate? Yes." Identify people that can actually win - more art than science. "A Pikkit record does nothing for me." "Why do we need each other? If you're betting NFL sides, why do you need me?" "Anyone can go to CRIS and jam the screen, the end goal for the mover is to be able to get a position down without destroying the screen." 32:30 - Do movers ever deviate from the plays given to them? Knish - self-awareness key here, know what you don't know. Knish mentions the taboo area of if you do disagree ending up just booking / crossing with that person which both hosts are quick to distance themselves from, but it's a VERY good point to bring up because this is how you get yourself in heaps of trouble.

34:30 - Disguising Action: Rob - "Counterintuitive because I respect the closing line, you want CLV, but I am also looking for ways not to get CLV." Knish - "Use a kiosk at a non-market moving book with no player's card."

38:00 - Underrated Betting Tools: Rob - Betstamp Pro. "Cost point is high, but is for serious bettors." They both mention Google. (Feels like a big omission not to mention the AI stack that's available now - Claude, Cursor/Windsurf, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, etc. Non-coders can bootstrap really good apps pretty quickly for cheap.)

40:45 - Early Morning vs Late Night Bets: Rob - "I make more morning bets, but prefer late night. Morning is more valuable to me than late night." Knish - tells the story of the casino that would only staff until midnight so the kiosks were unguarded after a certain time.

44:15 - Bankroll Management How Strict?": "We're going to sounds like a Bet the Process segment here." - Knish (lol). High rollers mention that they are capped by liquidity, not by unit size / amount / Kelly.

48:00 - Aspects of Life Approach Like Betting: Knish - "Shopping, using a top down approach." Rob - "Golf - tracks every golf shot." "Created a model for buying wine." Scrapes prices and scrapes reviews (Very smart, cool). Producer pops on - buying insurance for things like rentals and doing the EV calcs, playing darts.

1:01:00 - Offshore Exit Scamming Due to Legals: Offshores, right now, many times are a better offering than legals - bonuses, etc. Knish brings up the lack of overhead (regulatory, marketing) costs that the legals have.

1:07:00 - Fav Movie: Knish - Rounders, Heat. Rob - Goodfellas, Dumb & Dumber.

1:10:30 - Live Anywhere: Knish - Hawaii, Columbia. Rob - Toronto.

1:16:45 - Thing Someone Would Be Surprised to Learn About You: Rob - very emotional. Knish - when younger, was obsessed with fitness. Was taking "enhancing substances" and started getting an enlarged heart issue.

1:21:10 - Who Would You Fight: Knish - Spanky "get his old ass in the ring and shut him up" (he says it jokingly). Rob questions Spanky's cardio. "Man of the Library would be a great one." Rob - "I can't see so i can't actually fight someone." "Philly Godfather, I'd Fck him up. I'd knock out The Greek's dentures." Crying. "Who doesn't want to throw a punch at Jeff Ma?" Kirk Evans mention. Both positioning for Bet Bash to get this setup, crypto has done this several times, need to have an out of country Bet Bash.