Circles Off - Porter Part 2

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-02-09 07:35:40
Rating: 8.25

Notes:
~11:00 - Industry/market has changed - social media reach of losing bettors influencing market. While aware of this phenomenon, I haven't put any legwork into tracking these influencer releases vs screen moves. My bias is I'm making numbers, I do care about the context of screen moves, but I don't have the bandwidth to care to track certain entities explicitly. Think this would be an extremely interesting research project that would likely to lead to some meaningful screen move context / edge. Could look at how far they can move the line, timing bets the other way, any correlation between increases in followers and market impact, etc.

House rule convo re: money back complaints about what new bettors know as their "reality" a good reminder my reality is not some zoomer's reality. Convo about shot taking - biased, but this is a solved issue I've already written about.

Longevity - ~37:15 - this is the most fascinating part of the podcast and why this review ended up longform. I think you should listen to the 12 minute segment at 1x and really think about the topics he brings up. You have to really reserve judgment and hear the entire perspective before forming an opinion. Porter takes not an "extreme" position, but let's say a very strong position that runs contrary to a lot of what you hear discussed about account longevity. Think hearing this somewhat opposite viewpoint is very important in properly forming a more coherent understanding of what actually is occurring. One of the better points made was ~42:30 about an anecdotal experience of running back a losing account that got limited even before it broke even which is something I have encountered on both sides of the operation. It's an experience you don't really hear much about, but is actually one of the more interesting player profiles a user can employ as well as a sportsbook can detect through whatever profiling heuristic process they employ.

Now, do I agree? Somewhat. Some stuff yes, some stuff no. The listener really needs to decide what pieces they want to take away, but I appreciate the different viewpoint. I am already in the process of writing a piece about this topic.


49:50 - Partnerships - if this is a topic of interest to you, can't recommend this section enough. Agree with r00b about his one disagreement that despite the Camelot version of partnerships described that there's real risk no matter how whatever understanding you've reached with the other party so beware. Was an important pushback. Good convo about the "Send Model", r00b gives a very easy to understand example for those unfamiliar.

Good quick rundown of the SB prop betting process - Porter very good at relaying the "mechanics" of the industry, a theme with his appearances.

The RAS section is simultaneously filled with great nuggets and just wildly wrong statements. Just a rollercoaster of emotions within seconds.

Two important notes - 1) Porter via voice >>>> Porter via typing. If you've had some abrasive text based interactions with him, give this pod a try because this is a much better format for him. 2) Just because I give something a certain rating doesn't mean I agree or disagree with the content - the rating can be somewhat related to how valuable the info is, sometimes it's if the content makes me think critically. This pod deserved a high grade, doesn't mean I agree with everything said.