Circles Off - The BeagleBets / Adam

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-03-01 03:38:36
Rating: 7.25

Notes:
7:30 - r00b talks about the BW / Rogan interview and his analysis is dead on IMO. Absolutely correct about Rogan's inability to do a proper interview b/c Rogan lacked the knowledge to pushback.

12:50 - TheBeagleBets / Adam interview starts. From Boston and the accent is incredible (coming from a guy, me, with an insane NY accent). Kind of want him to just scream YA THINK YA BETTUH THAN ME.

17:40 - Amazing sports betting start story - wong teasers and then hand tracking tip winners and betting Team to Score 1st. 18:00 - He brings up consuming a lot of bad content (Pregame) because it at least got him to evaluate for himself if an idea was good or bad. That's why I was consuming this content before BPR. I think with the limited time we have on Earth, not everyone should take this approach, but inspiration does come from strange places sometimes so if you're lacking inspiration, just consume content. Interesting concept.

24:00 - Will send out 50/60/70 plays in a day b/c working with groups, but he still is manually combing stat lines and making prices. Manually. Wild.

26:30 - r00b brings up similarities to chinamaniac's process (manual) and that Circle's Off episode (I haven't heard that one). My stance - I absolutely think it's possible that someone with a particular set of skills, experience & some superpower spectrum-ness can absolutely just look at pricing and find small deviations. I think it's extremely rare, but it *is* possible. I personally knew a professional bettor who has since passed who could just look at NFL 2H numbers as they posted & he out performed me easily with no model & almost no math training; however, this person was a unicorn, severely on the spectrum & mega wealthy. But again - my experience is that these people are very, very rare. In the example he gives, he's basically just identifying mean reversion plays manually (just one such angle, not his only process). In another example, sounds like he's manually excluding "non-reflective" data due to circumstance, I do think this is possible to do manually, but keeping all this straight manually is extremely difficult.








40:00 - Moving more through bigger groups now than friends & family which helps with accounts. Basically doing all props, no sides, emphasizes finding your niche which I agree completely.

45:45 - Interesting, looking to bring on someone to handle the sending out of the plays so he can focus more on origination. Just to give you an idea on the volume of plays we're talking about here and how that might even scale up.

48:15 - Tried tracking the individual details of his bets, gave up after a bit because it's a lot of work w/all the origination he's doing + sending out plays. Can see why he's looking to bring someone on to help improve these processes.

1:00:00 - Wild, desk is in a common area because he is very good at focusing so the two kids can be around, but he can be in this common area and still work. Insane, I need to be locked in a vault. Common theme - his process is not your process probably.