Deep Dive Gambling - March Madness

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-03-20 18:45:46
Rating: 6.25

Notes:
1:30 - “The Sat/Sun games are different types of markets in terms of maturity vs the Thurs/Fri markets that are shaped all week.” Obvious, but good point to emphasize. 5:30 - “There were some very respected NCAAM bettors that had losing seasons for the first time in a long time.” Hmm, wonder who he could mean? /s

10:30 - Vermont, plodder but in a conference that is a fast conference tempo wise. Illinois vs Morehead St, Auburn vs Yale - tempo clashes. Strong argument for longshot Northwestern to have a good stylistic matchup (slow tempo, 3pt efficiency) vs UConn, some cold water from Andy due to NW injuries.

30:30 - Injury information maybe a slightly greater importance this year. No real centralized source of info, mostly cobbled together from many sources. (I’ve built something custom, but for anyone starting from scratch with injuries in NCAAM, the Covers & Rotowire injury pages can get you started, but you’ll have to do some serious legwork).

38:00 - Some New Mexico disbelief which might be a good non-contrarian play in a sharp pool since TRank has New Mexico 24th, Clemson 36th yet the seeding is flipped. Followed by a similar Wisconsin / JMU non-contrarian play convo where public bracket is picking JMU more than other similar seeded teams.

45:50 - Type of ball discussion, absolutely love this breakdown. Less of an impact than prior years, probably just a 1 year angle, but very good to bring this up.Haven’t heard this point brought up anywhere else & even though likely not an angle this year, its’ good to circle back on old edges. Although a fun little mention at the end of the pod …

56:00 - What a point - “if you see a team that’s really good at a certain thing, zoom out to look at the conference”. Uses Big East free throw rate and if the refs are the reason why some teams are ranked low in free throw rate i.e. conference specific factors.

1:09:00 - Drew asks o/u 0.5 guys drafted in top 5 this draft that play in the tournament. Then there’s a Bronny James reference for some unknown reason? Took a bit but we got to some of the more realistic names 2 minutes later.

1:16:25 - “What is ATS capture?” I’ve never heard of this before, no skill related, sounds fun for sure. Followed by some solid Calcutta advice.

1:23:30 - Nebraska a wide gap between their expected 1st round success and 2nd round success, 1:28:15 - “Colorado St used the Wilson Evo Next ball all year Virginia did not” … (sounds like they recorded this during that game).