Deep Dive Gambling - Solving Masters in 90

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-04-11 18:19:16
Rating: 7.00

Notes:
I don’t bet golf. I have never modeled golf. I barely know the player’s names. I am not the right person to review golf only pods because I don’t have the required domain knowledge to do so. I wasn’t going to review any Masters pods (which is why I didn’t get them done before the event started), but I relented while outside gardening. Again, I know nothing about golf.

However, I thought Drew had a very good theme in this one about 2 issues when it comes to the golf data - the LIV data and the Scotty median SG. I think just for those two sections alone this pod seems like it is worth it. Now, golf sharps may say this is absolutely super standard stuff and you’re making a big deal out of nothing and that very well could be true, I again have no idea about golf, but it seemed like questions I would be asking myself if I did. Not a ton of weather talk in the pod though which seemed important to me, but again I know nothing.

4:15 - “the Strokes Gained data coming from LIV is very suspect for a few reasons.” “The data we are getting from LIV is rough.” “Motivational issues.” “Almost eliminates any LIV player from having outright value.” “Agreed, but I’ll throw that out for like 4 guys.” Andy explains this is due to the SG uncertainty bands and how they are skewed for these LIV guys.

Big Rahm value discussion at +1350. Then goes through the 3 other LIV exceptions.

25:30 - Scotty talk. “Very short odds for a field like this.” “Is there a median shift in his data because the Tour lacks certain players and it doesn’t require more risk taking?” “Is that shifting his median positive?”

36:15 - “Why is Rory shorter than Xander?” “Xander doesn’t win tournaments which is important for cashing outrights.” Pretty funny line.

43:30 - 3rd story - the debutantes. "The debutantes field is thick." - are we talking Masters or the first sorority mixer?

52:15 - "What's the fair price on Tiger finishing all 4 rounds?" Phil vs Tiger H2H 10k a pop markets. "This is a tough walk, long course that is uneven you're not walking on a bike path for 4 miles."

55:30 - Top Senior market followed by Top Spaniard.

59:30 - Hole in one market, seems like value on No (+160).