Football Analytics Show - Ryan O'Hanlon

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hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-04-09 16:28:32
Rating: 4.00

Notes:
Ryan O'Hanlon - ESPN writer / wrote Net Gains
2:45 - xG definition. Messi breaking xG.

5:30 - City vs Real Madrid - "Should City have lowest odds to ship?" "Yes" but no value. "Markets pricing in priors probably further back" because Pep's history.
8:45 - "Should City be favored to win the EPL?" "Think it will be real hard with 8 to play to make up 3 points and climb two teams." Well, do I have some news for you after this weekend's results. (For the non-soccer people, Opta has it 39.7, 31,3, 29 City, Pool, Arsenal after this weekend. Pool went from 47 to 31.3 this weekend). "City by some accts have hardest schedule remaining of the 3." Is that even true? Before or after this weekend's fixtures? I don't have that as true before or after - it's close enough I don't think it's defining one way or the other actually.
9:50 - RM talk. "RM ran hot in the early part of LL." You could say that again. "They allow the highest pass completion % in LL." Brings up interesting matchup where RM not a great press team, City sometimes "struggles" (for as much as City can struggle) against press so it's a tough matchup. RM will look more to counterattack.

15:30 - ARS vs BM - "Leverkusen's outlier points total almost makes BM's season look worse than it is on the other hand they haven't been very good in the CL they were bad against United who is terrible." United catches a stray. "Bundesliga a big pressing league, creates a lot of space, BM 75 goals on season, league style makes underlying stats look good." Some press vs mid-block discussion and how it affects the underlying stats.

22:30 - Dortmund vs AM - "Why aren't they (Dortmund) favored against AM?" "They ... aren't very good." "Marco Reus is like 78 years old and still kind of important." (He's 34 and definitely on the downslope for sure.) "Dortmund sort of an older team than in the past, but AM just not a very good defensive team" (unlike teams a decade ago). "Neither team is a top 8 team in Europe, but they both have a chance to make the final because of the draw."

28:05 - PSG/Barca - "Barca season seems worse because of how good RM's season has been." "PSG worst team in Europe for table points per $ spent" but this is just because of how much money they spend. Barca midfield pretty injured. PSG net xG not that great this year in L1. "Mbappe and Donnarumma are very good." Accurate!