Risk Takers Podcast - GiantsBadgers

Podcast Release Date:
Podcast Link:
hagrinBPR Review Date: 2024-04-05 07:16:40
Rating: 8.25

Notes:
UPDATE - 2024 December - This review should be ignored in its entirety.

My bias - was super excited about this one. Two key points - a bunch of people I know who have prior GB exposure gave me their pre-scout. Also, this is the first pod where the guest is half or less than half my age. My experience in crypto is that I learn 10x more from the zoomers so I really wanted to get exposure to some younger viewpoints (uhhh phrasing?). However, almost without fail, I will have an "old man moment" when interacting with zoomers so I know that's my bias going in.

4:45 - Poor RAS Discord catching strays. "Give accts, give accts, give accts." "Look at the accounts to learn the behaviors." "Create the relationships." "Why are more people not doing this (giving accounts)?" "Ego." Can confirm. Also, love the very simple answer. Some interesting variance calculator discussion to process downswings. I keep hearing on these podcasts about things that bettors *don't do* or *don't understand* and I just don't know where these people exist. GP mentions you see this more in poker than sports. Who doesn't evaluate how good or bad they are running vs expected who does this at any serious level? And if you're too lazy to do it, Seth will do it for you and put you right next to everyone's favorite content - IBM's Watson tennis bet tracking.

12:45 - "I assume you've cut orginators off where you're less certain they have an edge." Has cut off well known groups that are widely respected - some time related. "What they were doing was de-vigging Pinny / Cris and betting it elsewhere like Jamaican 3rd Division soccer." Later he explains that it was only having access to the accounts that he determined this later which is BRILLIANT. I love that he wasn't just blindly moving stuff, but he was using the asymmetric information advantage he had to reverse engineer the process (he even uses the term reverse engineer after I typed this). I've listened to a lot of mover podcasts, I've heard people copy/steal plays, but no one really reverse engineer the entire process. Love it, pod worth it for this alone. However, I know the JPL, is there even a 3rd division in Jamaica? Now, if it was Norway, I think I know exactly who we're talking about here ...

17:00 - "Based on the order flow, I do think it's possible to win at post ... anything but the NFL." "Okay." Huh, you don't say. Well, I'm old enough to remember when a certain guest not only made this claim on this same podcast channel, but then used the very common conman tactic of attacking the non-believers pre-emptively. And for the record, the at-post efficiency statement wasn't even in the top 2 most fraudulent statements made in the first half hour of that episode. To be continued.

19:00 - Originates tennis and Euro hoops currently.

20:45 - Goes through a bunch of crypto based offshores, then PPHs and addresses some local stuff (although college based). Brings up a point everyone should know - arbs with locals where you may not get paid changes the math. Cap max wins per week when dealing with running up balances on PPHs. 31:15 - Watching your plays get steamed especially at certain PPHs once they hit the backend.

38:00 - 3 bets NCAAM at post at PointsBet - limited. "It was probably Shipper." Sounds like friction to me! 43:00 - There's some Bet365 talk where GB seems unaware that 365 reported 2020 year pre-tax profits of half a yard on like 3 yards rev. Denise is a grinder.

48:45 - "There's a big misconception (he says misnomer) that origination elongates accounts - I think that's not true, maybe 5-10% true." 53:20 - I think we played the intro music to edit out something, the Lost Tapes.

54:45 - Order flow visibility section. "I have ticket writers who run for me at other locations." You know, great strategy, not a new one, but always good to throw that one out there as a reminder that these people make good runners usually. Follows up with a story about how valuable seeing order flow is (same thing goes for crypto obv, asymmetric information is super valuable). Other back office employees sending him info traders are sending out internally - again, relationships and asymetric information. Can confirm this works - there are many ways to see order flow programmers willing to work cheaply get access to a lot of stuff.

1:02:45 - "There are a lot of fakers. There's a lot of people who say they win and they aren't winning or they say they win but they are break even and the real money they are making is booking." Wow. Personal story - someone asked me a tech question once and the way it was phrased made me think it was coming more from a booking angle than a moving angle so this was a super interesting thing to hear GB say he's encountered. "Of the big sharps you know, over 50% of them are booking and booking large." Wow x2. Really makes me feel better about declining to help further than I did before I started getting the bad feeling. Really appreciate GB sharing this.

1:09:00 - "Net cover margin more important than people think." Interesting, not sure that's something I focus on and that's not something I hear a lot of although my soccer focus has grown a lot in the last 4 years (not really a sport that lends itself to net cover margin). Does do some work with Rufus' group, they do well in NCAAM. (Sidenote - read Rufus' Beyond CLV and ROI: Analyze Bet Results Using Expected ROI article it's very good). 1:11:50 - "The hardest sport to win is NFL." Former RT podcast guests taking strays left and right here.

1:12:55 - "Injury news and information is next tier below order flow maybe even on the same tier. If you don't have the information, but you have order flow you can detect information pretty quickly." Think this is almost entirely true (98+%?), but sometimes the peolpe getting injury news first *will be* the order flow and will be the tier above for a tiny fraction of the order flow. "Be First, Be Smarter or Cheat - it's a lot easier being first than smarter".

1:21:00 - How do you evaluate people who have accounts? Not really taking legals right now. Very interesting. 1:25:30 - How do you think legals have changed the PPH landscape? Great, great question. "People like betting on credit." Mentions the states that are lagging with legals. Restrictions in-state on market offerings. Calculate/acocunt for leakage. "If you scale to a certain degree you can't monitor every single thing." Mostly agree, but I think that degree is much more extreme than people think although it requires a ton of automation and clearly defined processes (and a Grim Reaper to axe the things quickly that deviate). "You can't shortcut your way into a good network." 10000% true. "I really do enjoy the people and talking to them." We couldn't be any different haha, but he has a great outlook and I hope he keeps it.

Overall, this was awesome. While I have no direct interactions and this isn't an endorsement, his described approach to some of the tougher situations is extremely mature & shows a lot of wisdom beyond his years (assuming the words match the actions). Again assuming the pod matches the real world, just super impressed with his deep understanding of fair and equitable business transactions and relationships in a space that's just absolutely loaded with landmines.

13:30 - I wanted to go back to this point, didn't want it so close to the top of the review. "People don't take into account the mental aspect, Nov-Feb, no days off, 10-12 hours a day, week off, needed a week off to get back mentally." Here's the Old Man Moment. The following statement is relative - while it's definitely a lot + school too (its A LOT at this level), let me tell you in my best Neil Young voice - young man, it only gets worse from here so be prepared. If you're the type that is susceptible to burn out, my advice is you need to plan for that only increasing if you continue the grind because the things pulling you in other directions in real life only gets way worse - kids, partner, the house, health, etc so plan accordingly.